How much can you trust your instincts

Know-nuffin

I was playing a PL08 cash table yesterday, taking a free look from the bb when holding 9-10-Q-Q, I flopped J-8-8, with 3 others in the hand.

We all checked the flop and when the turn put a second suited on the board but killed the low, I checked and was the only caller to a min bet.

This left me hu, and was pleased to see a Q on the river.

First to act I bet 1/3 pot, was raised to a full pot to which I re-raised the pot.

The other player thought long and hard and made a comment, "go on then I'll pay you off."

He had a pair of jacks in his hand.

He said later he knew I had the Queens, and I knew he had the Jacks.

How do we know these things.

It's odd how (ignoring the actual betting/game situation), I know when my KK runs into AA, yet like a lamb to the slaughter I'll call a shove.

How much can we go by feel.

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Know-nuffin.... "nurse, he's out of bed again"

addam00 · Posted: Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:23 pm Post subject:

well... like they always say go for insticts if your not that sure. what else to do next... as yoda would say..

Concentrate...feel the Force flow. Yes. Good. Calm, yes. Through the Force, things you will see. Other places. The future...the past. Old friends long gone
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Arjonius · Posted: Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:45 pm Post subject:

The hand in question doesn't seem so much a matter of instincts as of figuring out what you can have that fits the action. Once you re-pot the river, what can you possibly have except QQ or 88? A bluff isn't impossible - including bluffing with a worse made hand - but how likely is it? So your range is pretty narrow. Even assuming a 20% bluff rate, which seems pretty high, it seems like not that difficult a fold.

I think sniffing out AA when you hold KK is generally more instinctual since there will more often be a wider possible hand range.

Know-nuffin · Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:57 pm Post subject:

Oh wow... How do you sniff out K9 ?

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Know-nuffin.... "nurse, he's out of bed again"

addam00 · Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 12:49 am Post subject:

that is becasue the force is with him.. believe in the force and the force shall be with you

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Can you spare a medal? I need another medal

kesza · Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:46 am Post subject:

This is the ultimate question. Can you trust your instincts? Can you separate your instincts from your ego's words? This is the thoughest.. Your poker knowledge or the odds is just a frame which is expandable by any read anytime...
And anyway, did you know that Negreanu is originally from Romania, and... his grandmother was hungarian?

..That explains a lot to me.

(ok, just kidding)
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kesza · Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:07 am Post subject:

ok, but that reraise at 7:33.. that's a bad move I think. And after that, it was not too hard to find out why is that guy so self-assured.. He had the 2nd best possible hand.. If Daniel had the best hand, it's an instacall so it's not the question... But, that guy was acting exactly like he has the best hand and he has!
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Know-nuffin · Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 3:31 pm Post subject:

Oh yeah love that phrase...

jolub · Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:06 pm Post subject:

My instincts are useually correct. My problem is that I don't follow them.
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Arjonius · Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:11 pm Post subject:

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