Pot Odds - Simple really ?

Brian Wills · Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2006 6:28 pm Post subject: Pot Odds - Simple really ?

An easy method of calculating odds involves multiplying your outs by two, then adding two to that sum. The result is a rough percentage of the chance that you’ll make your hand.

Say you have a flush draw on the turn. This is nine outs. Nine times 2 equal 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20.
Say you have only four outs, Four outs x two, plus two = ten.
Say you have fifteen outs, the quick measure yields a figure of 32.

The strategic implications of this are simple:
If you have a ten percent chance of winning, the cost of your call should not be more than ten percent of the pot’s total.
With a thirty-two percent chance, you can call a bet up to one-third the size of the pot.

If you want to estimate your chances on the flop without the need for much arithmetic, try this:
If you have between one and eight outs, quadruple them. Eight outs multiplied by four yields 32, while the precise answer is 31.5 percent.
With four outs, the quadrupling method yields 16 percent, while the accurate answer is 16.5 percent.

With nine outs, a common situation, because it represents the number of outs to a four-flush, quadruple the number of outs and subtract one. You’ll be spot-on when you do, since the arithmetical answer is 35 percent.
You can use this method up to 12 outs, though with 12 outs the shortcut method yields 47 percent, while the precise answer is only 45 percent.

For 13 through 16 outs, quadruple the number of outs, subtract four, and your results won’t be anymore than two percent off dead center.
And remember, anytime you find yourself with 14 outs or more, you are an odds-on favorite to make your hand and pot odds of any size become worthwhile.

Hanging on to unprofitable draws for whatever reason, and many players persist in drawing to long shots even when they really do know better, can be a major leak in your game.
For many it’s the sole reason they are lifelong losing players instead of lifelong winners.

The chart here shows odds against making your hand
With two cards to come (flop to river)
And with one card (turn to river) remaining

ramasees · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:28 pm Post subject:

thanks 2 brian 4 the list and an easy way of working out pot odds. will find this useful.
whilst reading this article,it reminded me of the fact that poker players need intuitive and statistical attributes. personally i would put myself in the former category as i have a basic idea of pot odds but prefer 2 outplay opponents.
this brings me 2 my point .pot odds r a statistical indicator of the odds on u making a given hand. it is no guarantee that u will win if u make your hand,nor is it a certainty that u will lose if u dont. of course, a high percentage of the time if u r being bet into,then the likelehood is u r behind.
however,being a "pokerbot" is no guarantee of success. even on the internet factors such as position,chip stack, pre-flop raise, post flop bet,hesitation and studying the player(tight,fish) can all be used 2 ascertain the possible hands of an opponent and as such would alter the way i play a hand,
eg re raising a minimum raise on a straight draw when your opponent has ak that hasnt hit would result in u winning the pot 50%(4 the sake of argument). however a call from your opponent still gives u the chance 2 bet out and a higher chance of winning the pot assuming your opponent hasnt hit:)
in summary,i know brian wrote these odds purely as an addition 2 your poker playing armoury( i believe this info will improve my game), but be aware of why u r betting as well as the chances of it succeeding.

Doylestown · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:04 am Post subject: genius

Thanks, that was very informative. I always to try do the math, but again get lazy.
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truushot · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:08 am Post subject:

Don't forget that you need to factor implied odds as well. Many times you can make what seems like a bad call if your certain that you can get a lot more from that foe if you happen to hit your hand.
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cerberi · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 6:26 am Post subject:

i wish more ppl would understand the odds then maybe not so many will chasethe ace to the river

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Amarillo4 · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:57 am Post subject:

I find it difficult to know what cards to count when working out pot odds.

If I hold AK of hearts and the flop comes 7d, 7h and 4h I have the nut flush draw but I would also improve my hand with an ace or king so there are 9 hearts, 3 aces and 3 kings. Is that 15 outs?

Even if I make my flush draw the other player may have a full house so I would lose anyway.

harry_lime · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:13 am Post subject:

jsaw · Posted: Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:03 pm Post subject:

Brian great table - I do believe 13 outs is enough for a reraise in most situations - especially if you are drawing to the nuts.

NateTrib · Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2007 4:24 am Post subject:

I don't know about you guys but that table just confuses the heck out of me! I found this short video that tells you very simply how to count outs and calculate odds. Knowing your odds is essential to being a successful poker player!

Calculating Odds and Outs
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Know-nuffin · Posted: Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:15 am Post subject:

Well spotted Nate, that is a very good, easy to follow way of explaining it.

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Mad4Cards · Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:09 pm Post subject:

very informative thread... this is the part of my game I need the most work on. The video and tables will be used a lot in next few months!

truushot · Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:07 pm Post subject:

I find it truly funny that many of the top pro's really don't utilize pot odds. They are much more focused on implied odds. Not that they really even understand them. If you really watch the top players you'll understand that hold'em is really a game of position, betting, guts and knowing your foe.

PoolDemon · Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:16 pm Post subject:

very nice chart, but you forgot to include a donkey's guide to the galaxy, whoops meant a donkey odds chart, take the following examples of 1st position play, K3, Q4, J2, 93, all suited of course, this is the hand you as the donkey will call the BB with, (reminder, first position play here, advanced donk skillz required) and you will sit patiently for that good player near the button to raise 5 times the BB with a silly 2 out hand like QQ, you call because you know your K2 suited simply DOMINATES the table, flop is 2 of your suit, and a 10, damn your good, simply check, let that silly fool of a pathetic good player bet the pot, your gonna call, pot odds, smot odds, dont matter, I know a king or heart will hit, jack of clubs on the turn, check to the good player, who of course bets the pot or goes all in, superDONK will call, & yep hits his flush or king on the river !!!
who needs math skilz or poker kowledge, simply become a donk & don't waste any brain power, simply play these hands, & call every bet, your a winner EVERY time !!!

p.s. sorry Brian, I just had to add that, shoot me if it wuz in-appropriate, very, very nice chart !!! I'm sure it will help lots of players...

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tzachip · Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: Pot Odds - Simple really ?

dont trust those odds, they are evil

The Stoic · Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:08 pm Post subject:

Oh dear some of you have suffered badly out there - brothers and sisters - my recommendation - play more live games. In decent cash tourneys this type of play usually lasts about 2 minutes. Donks playing will have to suffer the looks/comments of their fellow players and believe me there is nothing worse than letting everyone know you're a cretin.

I've been playing poker in one form or another for 25 years and I promise you all that good play, over the course of a playing career, will always stand you in good stead and mean you will leave the majority of games not having shamed yourself with awful play or a little bit richer.

I try and console myself always, and sumtimes it is mighty mighty hard, that if you get it all in with the best hand then you have to leave it to the cards plus the knowledge that every hand of poker you play win or lose should teach you something either about the game in general or the people you are up against. Be Brave - Push Back if you have a hand - and sacrifice the odd goat to the poker gods

Be careful its a jungle out there
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CancunGirl · Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 11:24 pm Post subject:

PoolDemon · Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 3:15 am Post subject:

hey teamie, wish I would have seen you post sooner, welcome to the bet poker forum out there, I hope you enjoy this place as much as I do...
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muratore · Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 3:22 am Post subject:

zarger11 · Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 5:42 am Post subject:

One thing to keep in mind is that pot odds and implied odds are not the only thing you need to make a correct decision. That may work in cash games, but in tournaments, you may have a correct call based on pot odds, but the right move is to fold.

Pot odds are a great tool, but they are not the only tool in the toolbox.

2puttbirdie · Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject:

In my opinion, you must play the odds to be a top player, if you have 2 7 off in the small blind and 5 players in the pot plus the BB behind you, and you are already in for 20 chips in the SB, you HAVE TO CALL 20 to see a pot of 140 you just HAVE TO CALL.......it does not matter what you have in your hand.

PoolDemon · Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject:

Arjonius · Posted: Sat Nov 08, 2008 7:37 pm Post subject:

katymaty · Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:07 pm Post subject:

Has anyone got any odds for calculating Razz or Stud

eg Razz 1st 4 cards A468 how do you calculate the odds of getting a 2 3 5 or 7 with 3 cards to come ????????????

Stud 1st 4 cards are spades or 1st 4 give u 78910 what are the odds for hitting the flush with 3 cards to come or hitting the straight????????????

DangerMouse · Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:04 pm Post subject:

katymaty · Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:06 pm Post subject:

thanks

sounds like itll give me headaches lol

was hoping it was something similar to the 2 4 rule in holdem

DangerMouse · Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 1:46 am Post subject:

Well just in case here is the answer I got when I asked the same question to poker player/author and maths wiz Tony Guerrera. Have fun

Let U denote the number of unknown cards and F be the number of available flush outs. The probability of hitting your flush with cards to come is 1 - P(No Flush). P(No Flush) = (U-F)/U * (U-F-1)/(U-1) * (U-F-2)/(U-2). Therefore:

P(Flush) = 1 - [(U-F)/U * (U-F-1)/(U-1) * (U-F-2)/(U-2)]

If that looks like a pain in the ass to calculate at the table, it's because it is In the interest of coming up with a way to estimate on the fly at the table, let's look at some common scenarios, and come up with the exact calculation and Fire's approximation:

One Extreme: Heads-Up Game (46 Total Unknowns)

9 Flush Outs:
Actual Probability: .488
Fire's Estimate: .587

8 Flush Outs:

Actual Probability: .444
Fire's Estimate: .522

7 Flush Outs (not that this happens in this case, but I want you to notice the pattern):

Actual Probability: .398
Fire's Estimate: .457

Other Extreme (8-handed game where everybody sees 4th street: 34 unknowns total)

9 Flush Outs with 34 Total Unknowns:

Actual Probability: .616
Fire's Estimate: .794

8 Flush Outs with 34 Total Unknowns:

Actual Probability: .566
Fire's Estimate: .705

7 Flush Outs with 34 Total Unknowns:

Actual Probability: .511
Fire's Estimate: .618

I'm not trying to make LakeOfFire look bad here...I'm just pointing out the error associated with the estimate he proposed, since it's commonly used. For 7-card stud, my preferred method is to assume that with no counterfeited outs, my P(Flush) on 4th street ranges from .49 to .62 with no exposed cards of my suit. So, for example, at a table with 10 known cards, there are 42 unknown cards, and I'll estimate something like .56. Then, for each exposed card of my suit, I'll subtract .05. So, 2 exposed cards of my suit means P(Flush) = .46.
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Know-nuffin · Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 12:08 pm Post subject:

Man that is a long way round.

Over on my site, I have a page on simple pot odds calculation. Here is a section from there;

There are fifty-two cards in a deck, though for simplicity base the pot odds on a deck of fifty cards. Consider that the deck is 100% of the cards that can be dealt.

With fifty cards being 100% of the deck, then the chance of any one card being the next drawn is 2%.

Right there, is all you need to know; that is the holy grail of rough pot odds.
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