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Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:05 pm Post subject: Value Bet?
This is a hand from a tourney I played last night. We`re down to 10 players and the money bubble has already burst. However, each player who makes the final 9 will receive entry into a freeroll that has an Aruba prize for the winner.
My opponent in the hand is one of the better players at the table. He has often completed the blind and has bet out on the flop probably 75% of the time. I have pushed a couple of times when he`s just completed and each time he has folded.
The hand is below. By 4th street I have the 2nd nuts and although 5th street puts a possible backdoor flush on the board it seems unlikely it will have hit my opponent. Do we value bet, if so, how much?
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Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:20 pm Post subject:
with your info on him being a good player, I'd check the river after he checked to you, as you have no idea what he's holding by him simply check/calling you on the flop & turn...& the fact that one more spot opens up a bonus tournament, which if you are ahead or not, still puts you at an advantage over the short stack @ your table, or in puts you in very bad shape if he has a flush or higher straight if you value bet & are wrong _________________ never do card tricks for the group you play poker with... . : . :
i really don't think he made his hand. i think the only reason he calls DM post flop is because he has two overs and DM made it cheap to do so. He doesn't try to figure out where he stands in the hand anywhere along the way. I believe what the villian should have done was bet the river regardless of whether or not he hit the flush, at least represent that he was chasing one the whole way. _________________ Newest and oldest member of the Mura-harem.
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Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:10 pm Post subject:
If he is one of the better players on the table his checks on every street shows a weak hand. A bet around 1800 is a good valuebet as mikloski allready have pointed out.
pretty much said high to myself, "why in hell would you check that river with a players check/Calls 2 streets and checks the last"...and as pooldemon said "the higher straight (only 65) and the flush beats our hand"...not very likely that he have those hands. a good player wouldn't complete with 65 imo or would he? . some hands that can be likely would be a single pair or somewhere close. that a valuebet would be a good choise.
EDIT: in these situations you bet and sometimes you just get the pot without showing youre hand, sometimes he calls and most likely you get the pot but sometimes FI will raise and you will probably allways have to call. _________________ Bara Ba-ba-baaa.. Im lov'in it
Marcus:-)
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Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:26 pm Post subject:
just pondering your comment Laagen, you say a good player wouldn't complete from the small blind to the big blind holding 6-5 ?
With his chip stack, almost any two cards are at least a call from the small blind with no raise pre-flop, especially connected cards like that, maybe even a pre-flop raise with it is in order...
Also, a good player would play strength as weak, as if he's good, he has already picked up on DM's style, & would have check/called, check/called, check/raised him all in on the river, cuz that's exactly how I would have played that hand.
The bigger picture should always be in your mind, IMO, in regards to payouts, bonus's like this one had by moving up one more spot, & your position in the tourny vs those below you.
If you do indeed win the pot, the extra 1800 would have been a nice value bet, but I definitely would not bet out the river here, for those reasons, it doesn't matter if there are only 2 hands that beat you, you are still in good shape if you lose, vs being out & no bonus tourny entry won. _________________ never do card tricks for the group you play poker with... . : . :
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Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 2:54 pm Post subject:
I'm checking here
i think your only gonna get a call if you're beat
Also as Rob says you are still in a good position chip wise with the blinds coming to the small stack and with the next player out losing out on a tourney place it is probly best to play cautiously
With the payout structure i like the turn play but if this was just a normal pay out tourney i wouulda jammed the pot on the turn looking for the double up and a better position to go for the win _________________ Nothing succeeds like a toothless budgie
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I'm still gonna fire at this. tbh, imo, the post turn betting is what puts the hero in this dilema to begin with. You've found out very little by keeping it so cheap for the villain to call. If he's TAG, he's folding his draw after an aggressive turn bet.
But that's just the opinion of a very mediocre player. _________________ Newest and oldest member of the Mura-harem.
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Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 5:12 pm Post subject:
Pooldemon:
I just think that a good player either raise or fold his SB in this situation. I would rather complete with a facecard with bad kicker and bet out any flop. But as the line he takes in this hand makes me feel he is just one of these loose/passive players. Why i say this is, because of his chipstack he can afford to raise with bad cards cause he will not get that many callers because of that second bubble. And if he wants to see a flop he should pretty much allways bet out on the flop.
But still i think i have become one of these "typical swedes" that thinks to aggro
Why i want the valuebet is because imo we have played the turn bad. the flopbet is okey, but the turn must be a bit larger, around 1.8K. With 2 minimum bets and FI C/C us both streets, what does that say us about his hand, pretty much nothing. he can still have any 2 cards as far as we know. You will get calls from 2pair, top pair, a splitpot etc. if we are beat he most likely will raise and we can fold and still be in good position of getting into top 9 _________________ Bara Ba-ba-baaa.. Im lov'in it
Marcus:-)
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Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 6:56 pm Post subject:
Laagen13 wrote:
Pooldemon:
I just think that a good player either raise or fold his SB in this situation. I would rather complete with a facecard with bad kicker and bet out any flop. But as the line he takes in this hand makes me feel he is just one of these loose/passive players. Why i say this is, because of his chipstack he can afford to raise with bad cards cause he will not get that many callers because of that second bubble. And if he wants to see a flop he should pretty much allways bet out on the flop.
But still i think i have become one of these "typical swedes" that thinks to aggro
Why i want the valuebet is because imo we have played the turn bad. the flopbet is okey, but the turn must be a bit larger, around 1.8K. With 2 minimum bets and FI C/C us both streets, what does that say us about his hand, pretty much nothing. he can still have any 2 cards as far as we know. You will get calls from 2pair, top pair, a splitpot etc. if we are beat he most likely will raise and we can fold and still be in good position of getting into top 9
Laagen, I agree he should have raised it pre-flop, esp. with his stack, but calling the SB here is not a bad play either, & I agree that the bet on the turn def should have been bigger, but the point of this particular post is in how this hand was played out, should it have been check/check on the river, or check then value bet by DM.
For how the hand was played out, for the reasons I gave above, it def should have been a check here, that's not weak poker, it's situational, & that situation, IMO, needed a check by DM, & it turns out, was a great play... _________________ never do card tricks for the group you play poker with... . : . :
When I made the flop bet I was surprised he called. Then the turn gives me the straight. I did think about increasing the bet to 1200 here but decided to stick to 600 for 2 reasons.
Firstly, if as Mik thought he was calling with overs there`s a possibility the ace hit him but as the straight is clearly a possibility I don`t want to scare him off. If he has just made a pair or 2 pair I want to take him to value town.
Secondly as I said I was quite concerned that he`d called on the flop. Even though I`ve just turned the 2nd nuts I wasn`t feeling good about it. This sequence of events doesn`t quite ring true somewhere. When he checks the flop I was expecting to take the hand with my bet but he called. Then he checks again. I know I have to bet here but I don`t want to go broke before the final table so again I bet just 600 and he calls.
Then the river comes. The flush seems so unlikely I`m not really considering it as a possibility. So the question is what can he check/call for 2 streets on that board?
I decided that he either had the same hand as me or that he had 5,6 and had been stringing me along from the off so I checked.
He turned over 5,6.
For all that in this case I made the right decision. Those who were proposing a more aggressive approach made very valid points. The crucial factor in this hand was that I wanted to make the final table and that meant treating this hand like a satellite hand. At this point winning the tournament was the secondary factor for me.
It`s also difficult sometimes to view a hand as a single entity. Just looking at this one hand doesn`t give you the feel of the table or the players involved. I tried to give enough information about the player that it might put some doubt in your minds but at the same time I didn`t want to make it obvious that he held the winning hand. Judging from the comments I think I managed that fairly well.
I ended up finishing 8th so I have my freeroll entry
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pretty much said high to myself, "why in hell would you check that river with a players check/Calls 2 streets and checks the last"...and as pooldemon said "the higher straight (only 65) and the flush beats our hand"...not very likely that he have those hands. a good player wouldn't complete with 65 imo or would he? 
. some hands that can be likely would be a single pair or somewhere close. that a valuebet would be a good choise.
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