Gandalf
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A "certain" hand from MLP Buyin #9Lets discuss it here and now  as we had a short discussion at the table
btw dont say why you folded your 1010 - I had a feeling 
Click to see full size image
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katymaty
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All your fault Gandalf, should've raised with 10 10 and saved all the discussion.
After the flop you did right to fold on a very scary flop.
When Mad bet 525 on turn and knowhen went all in she probably knew she was losing at the time to a straight but with so many outs and only 900 to call to win 3385. Think she had 13 outs and always nice when you have str flush draw.
Approx odds to hit and the pot odds were almost equal
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Gandalf
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| katymaty wrote: | All your fault Gandalf, should've raised with 10 10 and saved all the discussion.
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 please note - you should not note this - I sometimes try to limp even with pp's just to feel like weeeeeeeeee trips and noone expects me to have it - it's a risk but if you hit - you are a winner most of the time.
As for the fold after this flop - I thought Mad got the str8 and was scared knowhen hit trips  I didn't want to be in that hand anymore  .
And after all I think you are right about the odds there - I would have made the call also 
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DangerMouse
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Yeah I was a bit baffled by that fold.
Ok through a hand simulator.
After the flop Mad was 77.17% to win it, KW had a 22.83% chance.
On the turn Mad went down to 31.82% whilst KW goes up to 68.18%
Mad has to call 905 more getting 2.7-1. The odds aren`t quite there but as I know Mad pretty well I can recognise that the bet on the turn made her pot-committed. If you wanted to be purist about it she should have bet a little more on the turn to make sure she had the correct odds to call since it`s obvious that that was her intent here.
Reallistically the only cards Mad needs to be scared of are the 9h 10h which would give KW the straight and a better flush draw. However Mad also has 4 outs for a boat and 2 of the hearts would make a straight flush for the stone cold nuts.
So let`s roll it back to the flop. Well Mad has top pair and a flush and straight draw. KW has an open ended straight draw. A ten would give him the nuts as long as it`s not a heart and a five -none heart would give him 2nd nuts. So he has between 6 and 8 outs to make a hand but only 3 outs to make the nuts (We know of course that Gandalf has mysteriously folded 2 of those outs  ) That means KW calls 175 chips getting just 2-1 odds. If he puts Mad on the flush draw he knows he only has 6 outs - 47/6 = approx 7-1. with 8 outs it becomes 5-1 odds. If he thinks both his over cards are good he can add another 4-6 outs again depending on wether Mad has the flush draw.. With 4 extra outs it goes to 3.7-1 and with 6 outs he would be around 2.5-1 to win.
The fact is that the money that was called on the flop was a bad investment. However it actually pays off and KW goes ahead. Mad then makes a slightly bad (in terms of odds) call and hits. Both players get a little lucky on different streets but Mad`s call is completely understandable and is much closer to correct odds than the call on the flop was.
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Mad4Cards
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I was very disappointed by the reaction to what I saw as an interesting hand last night. I didn't get lucky.... I played the odds. if anyone got lucky against the odds it was you knowhen. You had no business being in the hand after the flop. I am not here to justify my play as others have already done that. I would like you to know that your disgusting rant at the end of the hand ruined the game for me so well done you. I just left a forum because of behaviour like that and came here because I was assured it didn't happen..... ah well I can't expect it to be perfect. Why is it when certain players get beaten it's always because the other player got lucky? The guy you donked with an all in call after missing the flop with A8 off said gg.... you could learn a lot from him. You have no business telling anyone how to play until you get your own game in order. Just my opinion... but then I don't go around crying about bad beats and abusing other players so who am I to say?
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Know-nuffin
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There are some unfortunate emotions going around the forum on this and other threads ATM.
I am locking these threads for a cooling off period.
Please can the members and friends at the forum take time to reflect on the good things about the general std of play at mlp an not turn this into all out war.
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