Action Flop (new scenario added in first post)

muratore · Action Flop (new scenario added in first post)

PL HO-tournament (Holdem - Omaha Hi/Lo)

30 started
5 get paid
7 still in
Av stack 8571.43

Antes Posted (25.00)
ddoonnaatt1 Posts SB 250.00
murific Posts BB 500.00
You were dealt: ( 6s , As , 9d , 2d )
(1101) Turner27 Folds
(2212) gdog70 Folds
(9354) DellaMae Folds
(3101) desertdarlin Folds
(26089) revx300x3 Calls 500.00
(4860) ddoonnaatt1 Calls 250.00
(13108) murific Checks
Pot Size: 2375
Dealing Flop ( 9c , 9s , 8s )
ddoonnaatt1 Checks
murific Bets 1000
revx300x3 Bets 5375 <---- Pot Bet
ddoonnaatt1 All in 4360

murific Fold/Call/Push ???

Chipleader liked to be aggressive in position, we have trips top kicker, nut flush draw, a good draw for low if it comes, and also chance to get a full house.

The others chipstacks are in brackets before their names up there, so we have a decent hand, but are beat if one of them have 89 or 88 in their hand, and might get beat if they have a straight draw that hits and our flush doesnt, we are 2nd at this point and a few short stacks in.

so what do we do here? let the hand go, forget about it and cruise in to the money and then take the win from there?

###############################################

Spoiler:

harry_lime

i would fold.

there's a good chance the full has already hit with the 9 8 leaving you only drawing to the ace to win it. alternatively 2 x 8's still leave you behind and needing to flush although with slightly better odds.

the other 2 players could also be drawing to the straight which again means you will have to hit the flush or straight.

2 cards for the low don't make it worth it for me.

i would only reconsider here if i was short stacked but you don't really need to gamble here.

Know-nuffin

Tis a playable hand, but I'd fold for the stack sizes.

You've seen a free flop that can get you into trouble, asked a question and the reply said, "get the hell outski."

If you call the 4375 (1/3rd of your stack) and miss, it could cost loads more to see another card.

You've done the hard work in getting clear of the pack. Stay out of trouble for one more place at least.

PoolDemon

if you guess wrong, the chip leader knocks you out, with aprox 12K left & only 500BB, it's not worth the gamble, obviously big stack will be pushing the action...I don't think trips would hold up with 2 others in the pot, if you don't hit flush minimum or FH, you probabley don't even bubble...

Stack size means everything @ this stage, if you are low stacked I say insta call all in, with chance to triple up as you prob. will bubble if that low...

With your stack I say think & fold, get into the cash which is part of what you play for (obviously the other part is winning...)

is that chickenpoop poker, I think not, good laydowns @ the right time are as important as good pushes...

Ramster

Gotta agree with Kn here

You got the info you were looking for here
with the 2 short stacks posting blinds next i think its time to cut your losses in this hand and look for a better spot when your getting your chips in on your terms

Your probly gonna get some better odds in next two hands to make cheaper positional calls than this one

BlackTyson

I soooooooooo suck lately @ poker - for this reason I shoulda stay out of strategy discussions

suck = almost tilt = I would have said

I play to win and pushed it.

GG Niti

DangerMouse

Interesting hand. My first thoughts were to call but after reading the other replies I was begnning to doubt it.

So I cheated

, ran the hand against a few options on a simulator and even against 2 hands containing 4 cards from 789T you have 47.77% equity. You`re getting close to 3-1 to call and you have both covered, so it`s a call according to the numbers.

True you`re not in great shape if either player holds 98 or 88 but you have an ace to hit and a backdoor low draw.

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
392,538 trials (Randomized)
board: 9s8s9c
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo

As6s9d2d 40.46% 132,009 137,259 0 104,817 0

MMMM 19.99% 69,501 87,456 0 0 0

8c8d7s6c 39.54% 137,379 167,823 0 5,250 0

Even here where our opponent has flopped 8s full of 9s the equity is pretty good and Mura`s hand is a marginal favourite.

MMMM = 4 cards randomly from 789T

PoolDemon

just a comment DM "You`re getting close to 3-1 to call and you have both covered, so it`s a call according to the numbers."

he didn't have both covered, the raiser had mura covered, he had 26K in chips vs mura's 13K...

does that change anything, your simulation showed a coin toss 40%40% aprox, without knowing what they really held...

you mention equity, if you have a decent stack, & can afford the bet, as an example, the raise thrown back at M were all ins, then fine, it's worth it, but calling or re-raising in that spot makes no sense, maybe it was the best hand, but you easily have many other spots to pick & choose from to attack...

also, were can one find that program, would like to play around with it...

DangerMouse

oops, missed the chip counts, just saw the ave stack size and that Mura was in 2nd.

Regardless of that I still think the hand should be played. The figures in the example I gave are for about the worst scenario, in the best one Mura had over 70% equity.

The options are call and be ready to call on the turn if CL pushes or get all the money in now and hope the CL was trying a steal and will fold to the reraise.

I think I`d have to favour the re-raise and the chance to get it HU or to take a huge pot that should secure the win. Yes you could fold here and probably cruise into the money, it depends if you want to do that or go for it.

Of course just calling and seeing the turn has benefits too. If a low card comes you know your hand is now even stronger. Even if you hit an ace or deuce it strengthens your high, although those cards weaken your low draw.

The hand simulator is at www.propokertools.com you have to register an account but it`s free and has simulators for omaha, om8b, razz and HE as well as a couple of other tools that look interesting. Have fun

DangerMouse

Just looking at the action again I`d say ddoon has 88 in his hand, maybe 98 although he can only call, it looks like he was hoping one of you would bet so he could checkraise or make the call.

Rev may have a nine, maybe a flush and or straight draw. Looks like he`s trying to pick off what looks like an info bet from mura. It fits with Mura`s profile of him.

I think Mura has to at least call and see the turn. That close to the bubble chip leader may even check down to the river.

Ramster

To a certain extent i agree with DMs thoughts here but im not sure if he took into account the proximity of the money

If this was early in a tournament i would say it is a defo call but there is a chance here that you are making the cash by folding

DangerMouse

PoolDemon

there are times to play aggresive near the bubble, but when faced with this type of hand, even though it could be the best hand at the moment, when facing two other players in the pot, and the chance you will be all in, & not get rewarded, why play it, you can't just go by implied odds at this stage. he lead out post flop betting & got re-raised & an all in thrown back at his 1K bet...if you only call, mr aggresive bettor might see that as weak & force him all in on the turn...so it's either a massive chip up, or a non-cashing finish with those low stacks geting rewarded for sitting there...

don't get me wrong, I never said this would be an easy fold, but disipline at this stage & you can still win the whole enchalada, there is no guarantee big stack bully is going to win that hand, & if he doesn't, those low stackers will now have 3 good stacks against them, they will be dropping like flies...

also, I can't agree with your factoring of the number of outs he has, as many of those outs are actually runner, runner outs...& playing to hit a runner runner hand is not the best hand to play, (unless you just knowwwww them cards are a commin'...)

there are so many "but it could be good hands" he could hit his flush, but does he bet a flush draw with a possible boat against him, meh...& of course he could hit a boat himself...
even if he sees two low cards, will he have the best low hand, maybe, maybe not...one high card & no low hand possible...
trip 9's could end up winning it also...

a very interesting hand...

just a question for the knowlegable, I think i'm right when I look @ the number of outs in O hilo, your percentage to hit drops compared to NLTH, as more cards have been dealt out right...even though same total number of cards ? (i'm thinking of the 4&2 "rule" were you get an approximate percentage to hit by multiplying the number of outs by 4 to hit your out on the turn, & by 2 to hit the river.)

DangerMouse

Well I ran the hand through the simulator a couple more times and even against someone holding the nuts after the flop Mura still had around 26% equity and therefore the pot odds to call.

And I realise that hoping to hit runner-runner outs makes a difference but he has so many I still thinks it`s worth a call to see the turn. Add in the fact that the guy who checked then called the raise is covered by revs bet and there are over 1,000 chips that mura would pick up even if ddoon has the nuts and I think it gives even more reason to call.

As for the 4-2 rule, I would think it stays the same except after the flop you`re working from 52-(4+3) so you`re dividing your outs into 45 rather than 47. The unlnown cards that your opponents hold have no effect whatsoever, wether they are holding 2, 4 or 7. They are unknown and must be included into the possibilities.

Apart from that where the hell is Mura? I want to know the result of the hand!

muratore

PoolDemon

Know-nuffin

Does this mean you called... how could you call we all told you to fold (all apart from Niti and DM).

Is this why the pace of online poker is so slow.

Ramster

This changes nothing IMO

In the first instance you asked for information and you got your answer
Personally i would fold for the reasons already given but a call is understandable

In the second scenario the play on the flop is just to weak to be able to invest any more money in the pot at the turn
It looks to me like Doon has played this well by calling the pot size bet on the flop with a draw if he doesnt hit the turn he can get away from the hand knowing the 2 shorter stacks are going to have to post blinds again before he does
His all in on the turn looks like hes probly caught what he needed and hes not scared of getting called up

DangerMouse

2nd scenario I think is a pretty easy fold. (Haven`t run it thru the simulator this time tho`)

Rev`s bet on the flop still looks like a position steal, turn card hasn`t helped in any way and ddoon has pushed. Time to fold imo.

muratore

forgot about this thread..

what happened was.. ddoon turned a straight, murific rivered a flush and rev had flopped a full house ( 8 , 9 ).

murific bubbles.

ok i played this hand bad.. scenario 2 is what really happened.. i check called flop because i tought i was best there.. and somehow wanted to trap i guess... turn i knew he hit his straight, but ended up all in anyway somehow..

funny thing is.. i didnt realize that i bubbled there until the day after i posted the thread.. for some reason i thought it was top 3 that paid and not top 5, if i had tought of that while playing the hand, i doubt i would have played it the same way i did..

harry_lime

muratore

harry_lime