This is a hand from yesterdays BIL game. It`s between myself and Rob (PoolDemon). After the hand Rob said he didn`t feel he could just call he had to push. I don`t completely agree with that statement. I think he could have smoothcalled and seen a flop. There was a little history in this hand. The previous hand I`d made a similar raise with AJo from the SB and Pool had pushed over the top and I made the fold.
($3140)PoolDemon69 Posts SB 100.00
($8762)Jepulator3 Posts BB 200.00
($3320)jolubxx Folds
($3693)joo101 Folds
($3285)DangerMouseXXX Raised to 500.00
PoolDemon69 All In 3140.00
Jepulator3 Folds
DangerMouseXXX Calls 2740.00
DangerMouseXXX Shows AA
PoolDemon69 Shows QQ
Flop- 6c 3h
Turn 9d
River 4h
PoolDemon69 Out
DangerMouseXXX Won 6680.00 from pot 1 with Two Pair Aces and Fours
In this case I don`t really see as the call would have made any difference to the result because the money is going in after the flop. But I do feel that a call wouldn`t have completely crippled Rob and then if there are scare cards on the flop he could get away from it and still have a chance to recover.
Neither am I saying it was a bad play because it was possible I was slightly titlted and trying to recover the chips from the previous hand or that I had something I might lay down to a push from Rob.
So what do you think is it always an instapush in this situation or does the smoothcall have merit?
PoolDemon
I'll put my thoughts on this hand in a spoiler.
Spoiler:
I don't like smooth calling at this stage of the tournament with QQ, if I smooth call & you flop a set, ace high flush draw, open ended straight draw, or a low flop with you holding JJ to AA as an example, it's all going in on the flop anyways, and unless an ace or king hits, I def am not folding QQ, then I'm at more risk then of losing the pot & busting out.
If I push PF, I am more than happy with winning the chips in the pot if folded to, & you already know I'm not RR you with trash, just as much as I know you usually have a strong hand to raise me with.
As for the previous hand, where I had the aces, sometimes I push with it, sometimes I smooth call, that was the hand for smooth calling, imo, but not the queens, they need to be played harder as they are much more vulnerable, again, imo...
Miklosik
hard to say without knowing what Rob was holding. We know you had aces DM by the result but I'm just guessing Rob held a decent pair also.
If that is the case, no, he can't just call. He may as well fold as call because chances are an over card comes up on the flop. 2.5x bb raise looks like a steal to me. I would have raised for sure but probably not pushed preflop.
The end result would have been the same though, if Rob is holding KK or QQ.
DangerMouse
Miklosik wrote:
hard to say without knowing what Rob was holding. We know you had aces DM by the result but I'm just guessing Rob held a decent pair also.
If that is the case, no, he can't just call. He may as well fold as call because chances are an over card comes up on the flop. 2.5x bb raise looks like a steal to me. I would have raised for sure but probably not pushed preflop.
The end result would have been the same though, if Rob is holding KK or QQ.
Sorry didn`t realise the HH didn`t show our hands.It`s edited in now but Rob had QQ and I had AA.
DangerMouse
Miklosik wrote:
If that is the case, no, he can't just call. He may as well fold as call because chances are an over card comes up on the flop. 2.5x bb raise looks like a steal to me. I would have raised for sure but probably not pushed preflop.
.
Ok I`ll throw a few numbers in from my handy book of stats.
Rob holds QQ the chances of an overcard flopping and him not making a set are 31.12%
Now let`s for a minute presume that the QQ is the highest pair after the flop. The chances of an overcard coming on the turn or river is 32%
So if I was holding AK, a hand I`d probably call with the QQ is approx 57% favourite in an all-in situation.
But if he smoothcalls 69% of the time I`ll miss the flop and if he shoves here there will be $1200 in the pot + his shove of $2700. So $2700 to call to win $3900 on a 32% chance. Those look like bad odds to me, I need another $1500 or so in the pot to make it the correct call and that`s without taking into account it`s my tournament life at stake.
As you said it is irrelevent in this case but I really wanted to look at the situation as a general one rather than where he`s unlucky enough to run into aces or kings.
It`s a tactic I use sometimes and usually end up regretting when I don`t use it. I was just curious what others thought so keep the views coming folks
Oh and if you think 2.5xBB looks like a steal you must think I steal a lot because it`s pretty much my standard bet at this stage of a tourney. My standard raise even in the early stages is usually only 3 to 3.5xBB and decreases as the game goes on and blinds go up.
Know-nuffin
This looks like all are in the money and Rob made an early bid for the top slot.
I can see where Rob was coming from. A substantial re-raise may have left him with 7xbbs. Some will some won't smooth call with the ladies in this situation.
3h
because it`s pretty much my standard bet at this stage of a tourney. My standard raise even in the early stages is usually only 3 to 3.5xBB and decreases as the game goes on and blinds go up.