can someone explain this to me

PoolDemon · Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 10:39 pm Post subject: can someone explain this to me

I'm at a loss to figure out why so many marginal hands end up in big pots lately, or when ok hands are into large pots without even getting 2-1, mainly on the merge network.

saying "that"s poker" doesn't suffice when the call is marginal at best, imo.

some examples of merge & the turn:
2 player's getting a good read off a big bet:

today kesza made what should have been a great call against reno, holding only 10-10, & off the flop & knowing the player type, I would have made the same call, as reno's a great player, but aggresive, & easily could put him on an ace, or a smaller pair, (it was 9-9) yep a 9 on the turn.

The other day I placed a 3x the BB bet of 450 holding AQ, from mid-position, the BB called holding A10, the flop, A,K,7, BB insta-pushes, my read, ace rag, KQ, KJ, or similar, so I call, & yep, a 10 on the turn.

today, 6 players left, the BB is 300, 2 limp, I have AK, I push 1900 chips aprox, all fold except 1, holding AQ, 2900 now aprox in the pot & needed to call 1600 more chips, not even 2-1, to make money, 3 or 4 to one is what's needed to call, vs a hand that with 4 players to act after the AI, is more than likely ahead of AQ, but of course a Q hits on the turn.

Are these hands being played because you know you aren't as far behind as you should be on the merge network ?

Are they being played because a player doesn't realize these hands aren't coin flips, typicaly at best 30% to win, usually much less, when the "big bet" is placed, I just shake my head trying to figure this out.
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DangerMouse · Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 12:09 am Post subject:

Marginal hands end up in big pots because players under-estimate their opponents or sometimes because the situation demands a push or call.

Looking at 2 of the hands you`ve mentioned from today`s game. Reno was holding an overpair to the board. He makes a completely justifiable shove and Kesza makes a good call with 10s. Unfortunately for Kesza a 9 hits on the turn and he ends up losing the hand. In this case I don`t really think anyone did anything wrong. To use the old phrase, that`s poker. And I really think it`s just one of those things.

The second example AQ vs AK. Well I have a slightly biased viewpoint. I know Rob`s game as well as anyone having been his team mate and having railed him and having experienced playing against him for a long time. In that situation AQ is a pretty easy laydown for me. I`ve folded AK to one of your re-raises before now and I`ve usually been shown to be correct to do so.

That being said I can somewhat understand the call with AQ. I don`t think I`d make it myself but I can understand it. If there`s one thing I`ve learned in the time I`ve spent playing online it`s that you can`t apply your own game to anyone else unless you know them really well. Now I know how tight Pool`s re-raising range is and yet I`ve called with very solid hands (usually to go down in flames against a better hand). I almost always end up cursing myself for not knowing better and making a stupid call. But I can understand how someone who doesn`t know Pool so well making a call with AQ. Against many players ranges AQ is probably usually a coinflip. Against Pool I`d say 90% of the time you`re going to be behind and usually you`re going to be 25% at best to win the hand.

In this scenario my prediction was pretty much right. I knew Pool didn`t have less than AK and I was right. Unfortunately for Pool a Q hit the turn and he was eliminated. I know it`s little comfort at the time. And that it may drive you mad for a while but at the end of the day you got your money in as a nearly 75% favourite. Those are great odds but unfortunately even those great odds still lose 1 in 4 times.

Those kinds of hands are highly frustrating. Especially when there`s something else at stake, as in this case the League Trophy. To lose anything you`ve worked towards because of a beat is horrible. Unfortunately that`s poker as they say. You can play every single hand 100% perfectly and still lose because someone gets lucky. Nothing you can do about it except say

"Well I got my money in good but the cards didn`t run my way tonight."

It might be a platitude but it really is all you can say when it comes down to this game. To look at it any other way is to drive yourself into fury and distraction and self doubt.

Look at it this way. It`s far better that you played right and got someone else to make a mistake than it is for you to have made a mistake. It`s the beats that I impose upon myself that really drive me mad. When I get into a situation and call knowing I`m behind that really drives me mad. When someone else gets lucky I usually find that much easier to shrug off.

Anyway, "All`s well that ends well"

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PoolDemon · Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 12:57 am Post subject:

thanks for the great reply DM.

you can't win 'em all is true, just haveing a 3 month string of "bad" beats at the wrong times in torunaments, & it's been very frustrating...it's a good thing I haven't been whiny or moody

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never do card tricks for the group you play poker with...

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RenoPoker · Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 5:52 am Post subject:

In every tourney I have ever won it has taken solid tight play and a whole lot of luck. Usually I can look back and see at least 2 or 3 hands in the tourney where I got lucky to catch up on a hand.

The best player in the world can't "win em all"

I pushed my 99 because they where an over pair and I didn't want to see a scary card like a ace come up next. I caught a 2 outer. Believe me I've been on the other side of that many times.

Merge is not my favorite site any more, does seem chaisers get paid off, but I think that type of programming would be difficult and not to smart for a poker site to do.
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PoolDemon · Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:25 pm Post subject:

just wanted to clear up the 99 vs 10-10 hand reno, you played that as well as can be played, obviously you put max pressure for kesza to call that bet, many of us would have played it as you did

I was only pointing out the turn card seems to hit the hand that is behind many, many times, far greater than what the percentages say should happen...I'm not watching my hands only, have been keeping track, merge has great looking software, & claim to have the best RNG around, which isn't true, & it has nothing to do with the greater # of hands per hour vs live play...
_________________

never do card tricks for the group you play poker with...

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Know-nuffin · Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:51 pm Post subject:

I don't think it is relevant to single out a site or network.

I remember a past player who convinced them-self that an Ace always hits on the river on merge and used that as a base for complaint at every occasion they were overtaken in a hand. Then in a memorable hand against me, they called from behind and moaned like merry-hell when an Ace didn't arrive.

I do not offer any words on the specific hands above, but like to take a wider view on similar occurrences.

Sometimes, a hand's strength can be miss-read because of the number of times a player C-bets. If a player is always bets like they have flopped the nuts then they will get called or re-raised by a lesser hand.

When making bets in major situations, as well as blinds/stacks, it is good to consider how the table or an opponent perceives your play style.
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MrBadBeat · Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:49 pm Post subject:

I can understand where Pool's coming from. It is mighty irritating to see a lesser hand get paid off on a regular basis.

Mr Mouse has summed up what I hope is my philosophy pretty well - if you put your chips in with the best hand you have done all you can.

If the turn or river are cruel to you it's outside your control. It's frustrating and annoying, but you have played it right and in the long term you should get your rewards.

As for Merge, I have always found it a much fairer RNG than some I could mention. At certain other sites, I get starved of opportunities to play, with trash hand after trash hand and an endless stream of missed flops.

On Merge, I do at least get to see decent cards every now and then. But I appreciate other people see things differently.

It's a good subject to raise - I think we've all got an opinion on this one.

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